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Portfolio Allocation After The SNB Shock
19 January 2015
Oil Weighs On Norway GDP, Krone
15 January 2015
 

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How Surprises Have Fared

26 March 2015

How Surprises Have Fared
Our global growth surprise index has slumped in 2015. The US has been the main source of negative surprises, with lower oil prices taking a bigger-than-expected toll on energy-related investment; Latin America has also continued to disappoint. Manufacturing surprises have tracked commodities lower. Eurozone and Japanese data have been more positive, and emerging EMEA and Asia ex-China have been more balanced, but we look to the US and Europe for cyclical upside.
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Greece Risks Rise In April

27 March 2015

Talks between Greece and its international partners on the long-stalled Troika review are not going well, while Greece's budget position is increasingly precarious. Greek efforts to secure interim cash flow relief from the ECB and EFSF have not been successful. With substantial debt service falling due in the coming weeks, we think market sentiment might turn a lot more nervous in April, though the ultimate crunch should come ahead of very large redemptions in July and August.   read more

Asia's Earnings Revival

25 March 2015

After a decade of structurally declining margins - mainly due to the rising cost of commodities, which we estimate are linked to around 30% of operating costs - Asian companies received a welcome boost from the collapse in commodity prices in Q4. We think this is just the start. Margin gains are likely to be a key theme in upcoming reporting seasons as sectors further down the supply chain follow transport in feeling the benefit. This should help kick-start Asia's profit cycle.   read more

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The latest instalment of King’s Comment: Voluntary agreements and country actions: the way forward on climate change
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UBS and Bridge Academy win the Prime Minister’s Big Society Award read more
 

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