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Research Spotlight

How Same-Sex Marriage Boosts Trend Growth
08 July 2015
Greece, Growth & Grief
14 July 2015
 

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Global Trade Challenges

22 July 2015

Global Trade Challenges
World trade volumes for both goods and services have risen by less than global GDP for the past four years. This is unprecedented in post-WW2 history. Activity in the US and the Eurozone is accelerating, but there are few signs that global trade growth is picking up. We think that this disconnect is structural, and that it has strong implications for nearly every asset class. Particularly in emerging markets, with their high exposure to global goods trade, it is helping to create a new reality.

 

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Time For European Equities To Catch Up With US

27 July 2015

European profits are suffering their slowest recovery in 50 years, and display an unprecedented gap to the US. While US profits are 28% above their 2007 peak, Europe's are still 20% below. Blame Europe's post-crisis capex dip and long-delayed banking cleanup for this. With the ECB survey showing that credit supply and demand are both now improving, however, economies with the biggest earnings gap to 2007 could offer more upside. By this measure, Spain, Italy and Portugal are cheapest.

 

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On Equity Return Sensitivity

29 July 2015

Our equity return premium (ERP) model projects dividend yield and share buyback cash flows which allow us to calculate a measure akin to fixed income duration. It also shows that an increase in this 'equity duration' will boost expected returns for equities in developed markets more than in emerging markets. This is because higher duration means higher future cash flows and higher risk premia, which penalize the longer-dated cash flows on which EM equities rely more.

 

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UBS News

The latest instalment of King’s Comment: Voluntary agreements and country actions: the way forward on climate change
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UBS and Bridge Academy win the Prime Minister’s Big Society Award read more
 

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