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The Case For US Financials
21 November 2014
Will The Fed Shut Down Leveraged Lending?
20 November 2014

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Global Economic Outlook 2015-2016

03 November 2014

Global Economic Outlook 2015-2016
We forecast global growth to accelerate from 3.3% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2015, and 3.6% in 2016 - a modest pickup still below its pre-crisis average rate. GDP growth forecast highlights: for the US, 2.9% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016; for the Eurozone, 1.2% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016; for Japan, 1.2% in 2015 before slowing to 1.0% in 2016. We see divergence in growth, inflation and monetary policies between the US and the rest of the developed world resulting in a stronger US dollar.


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European Economic Outlook 2015-1016

03 November 2014

Our projections for real Eurozone GDP growth of 1.2% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016 reflect our expectation of a continued recovery, but in a slow and unsteady fashion. We expect the robust UK recovery to continue, but have trimmed our GDP call to 2.6% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Our Swiss GDP forecasts are 1.4% for 2015 and 1.6% for 2016. GDP growth in Sweden we forecast at 2.5% in 2015, then rising to 3.5% in 2016. Our mainland Norway GDP forecasts are 2.4% for 2015 and 2.7% for 2016.


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China Economic Outlook 2015-2016

04 November 2014

We see China's GDP growth slowing to 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as the ongoing property downturn chills domestic demand. After an expected decline of about 10% this year, new property starts should drop 10-15% in 2015 before stabilizing in 2016. This property-driven real adjustment will bring disinflation, or deflationary pressures. While the government may refrain from strong monetary stimulus, we expect three cuts in the PBoC's benchmark lending rate by end-2015.


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