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Portfolio Allocation After The SNB Shock
19 January 2015
Oil Weighs On Norway GDP, Krone
15 January 2015
 

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Ten Surprises For 2015

12 January 2015

Ten Surprises For 2015
The 'surprises' we discuss in this article are plausible tail risks, outcomes that are not part of our central scenario, or that prove stronger than currently anticipated. Say if EURUSD were to go back up, or the Eurozone crisis to return with a vengeance, or volatility to stay very low. Is Yellen actually a hawk? Will equities generally, or the Nikkei in particular, head much higher, or will flows into fixed income remain strong? Will EM companies be better managed, or India outperform?

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Driving Towards Disinflation

08 January 2015

New technologies in information and communications, in manufacturing and in the provision of energy are - together with ageing demographics - generating profound changes in the world economy. Most immediately, they are exerting powerful disinflationary pressures on the price of many goods and services in the world economy, and are apt to continue doing so. Policymakers aren't paying enough attention to this. Global inflation outcomes will continue to surprise to the downside.  read more

China In 2015

06 January 2015

As China ended 2014, serious concerns about slowing growth and financial risks were giving way after the government adopted policies to stabilize the economy. In 2015 we expect China's GDP growth to slow further, to 6.8%, and its CPI inflation to slow to 1.5%. Growing deflationary pressure will spur the PBoC to cut benchmark lending rates at least 50bp, which with lower commodity and energy costs will boost corporate margins. Economic difficulties will likely increase the pressure for reform.  read more

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The latest instalment of King’s Comment: Voluntary agreements and country actions: the way forward on climate change
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UBS and Bridge Academy win the Prime Minister’s Big Society Award read more
 

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